As much as I’d like to say, “Oh, there’s no way in hell he’d win,” I remember saying the same thing in 2016, and here we are. Definitely a Constitutional crisis that would make it up to the Supreme Court, but yeah, we already know how the Conservative majority would decide on it.
Biden has had a couple victories, but they’re difficult to conceptualize into headlines. Things like confirming federal judges and jobless rate reductions. Many people, left and right, see his presidential accomplishments as lukewarm at best. Compare that with the current R headlines, striking down affirmative action, student loan forgiveness, and abortion, expanding the “right to refuse service” based on orientation, and future hearings which will likely further strip protections for LGBT people. These are MASSIVE conservative platform victories that have been campaigned on for decades, literally since the civil rights bill. I don’t think it can be stressed enough just how much red meat is in these few rulings for the conservative base. Couple that with stubborn inflation and negative real wage growth, Dems are looking at a very steep hill next year. Counterpoint, Dems have managed to embolden their younger base to mitigate midterm damage. But morale for this base is likely low given the student loan fiasco, LGBT rights, and a difficult economy.
Trump specifically is looking at two major challenges: legally, he has to avoid sentencing before the election. This will likely be something of a cakewalk for the guy. His federal case is currently being overseen by an openly biased judge who previously ruled in his favor on no basis other than “he’s a former president and should get special treatment”. Even with higher courts excoriating this particular justice, they are not likely to change their rulings this time. State charges are more difficult to dodge, but ultimately he will have fall guys and plea deals to fall back on in most if not all of these cases. A majority of Americans see these cases as political attacks anyway, not unbiased justice, so it’s unlikely these even hurt him in the polls.
The more poignant challenge in my opinion is in winning back independents and moderate Rs. He’s the front runner currently for the nomination, but it’s undeniable his antics wore thin on independents. He ran a divisive campaign and a divisive presidency and, well, it divided people. There’s no walking back some of the horrid opinions or outright lies he espoused. And there’s no hiding how ravenous hard conservatives have become in general for extremism and he and DeSantis are in a race to the bottom on appealing to this base. Time will tell whether independents hold their noses again and vote for him over Biden or another conservative in the primary.
Personally, I don’t see a world where he doesn’t win the primary and face off against Biden in the general. No world where the courts actually pin something to him either. If you don’t want to see another Trump presidency, swing state independents are gonna be your best shot.
Trump cannot possibly be sentenced to prison. He can and does deserve it, but it’s utterly impossible. Might as well wonder how high could pigs fly if pigs could fly.
He’ll be dead long before he’s sentenced to prison. If he doesn’t win, his usefulness is over with and he knows too much for the people that run the show to let him keep breathing.
I think if he runs then he will lose because he has burned bridges with a lot of Republicans and swing voters. Biden is doing a pretty good job and with Desantis he is pissing off a lot of Republicans also.
Will he win again? Time will tell - he still needs to make it through the primaries, and I think Ron DeSantis is playing better with old school republicans than Trump ever did, but last time Trump did beat Mitt Romney who was pretty widely respected, so its certainly possible. If that happens, I think he is likely to beat Biden. A lot of people voted Biden because he was distinctly “Not Trump”, but his victory’s have been poorly televised, and his defeats make him look ineffectual and near senile (thanks Murdoch media).
He has already said that if he is elected he will pardon himself. That’s never been done before, so would almost certainly go to the supreme court, but since thats Republican controlled I would expect that to get rubber stamped. He’s not going to prison if he wins.
Right, that wasn’t in question. I was responding to this poster saying that if he won the election, he’d pardon himself and not go to prison. I was just reminding him that Trump would not have that option for state crimes. So he’d be using an 8x6 cell instead of the Oval Office.
Yes - obviously if he does get sent to prison he cannot be elected president. I don’t think there’s precedent for this, so it’d probably go to the supreme court too, but since convicts can’t vote I ASSUME they can’t run.
Mitt was the 2012 republican Nominee against Obama, but he didn’t run for the 2016 primary. Ted Cruz was the second frontrunner that Trump beat. Now I wonder if Mitt would have beaten Trump in 2016, because I stand by that he was pretty well respected, but I guess we’ll never know.
A lot of people voted Biden because he was distinctly “Not Trump”, but his victory’s have been poorly televised, and his defeats make him look ineffectual and near senile (thanks Murdoch media).
I mean you’re right but…
Biden is still “not trump”, and most people likely to be influenced by Murdoch media are probably already trump voters. Also Trump’s position has deteriorated a lot since the last election - the legal problems must have cost him some supporters at least. Surely there’s a not-insignificant number of people that are starting to realise that his populist rhetoric is just that - he hates his base.
Even if elected, the Fourteenth Amendment bans Mr. Trump from legally serving without the approval of 2/3 of Congress, due to his participation in insurrection against the United States. Section 3 says:
No person shall be a Senator or Representative in Congress, or elector of President and Vice-President, or hold any office, civil or military, under the United States, or under any State, who, having previously taken an oath, as a member of Congress, or as an officer of the United States, or as a member of any State legislature, or as an executive or judicial officer of any State, to support the Constitution of the United States, shall have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same, or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof. But Congress may by a vote of two-thirds of each House, remove such disability.
You’re probably right, but has he been convicted of such? If he gets convicted of sharing secret documents is that equivalent? And if he gets convicted, what does the current no prison plea ultimately settle at regarding conviction of charges?
I think he would have had to be convicted of that. Even though it’s exactly what he did, he hasn’t been convicted of anything really. The only shit that ever sticks with him are low stakes civil cases he can just throw money at…
There’s nothing in the American constitution preventing a convicted felon, or even a prisoner, from being elected president. So it’s mostly just up to if he can get the support of Republicans.
It is still an open question on if a president can pardon himself. Would probably depend on what the AG at the time would think as far as letting him out of prison if he pardons himself. Good thing is Trump appoints the AG so if Trump wins and is convicted he is getting out.
And we’ve learned that the rest of their country will then talk about how bad it is that rule of law has totally collapsed, and just sit around and shrug because there’s no possible way to show disapproval of a despotic regime besides grumbling online.
With any luck we have ten or so years before we wind up back into that timeline though.
Everyone keeps talking about the fact that he may pardon himself. That is very likely true but let’s not forget the fact that anyone else who is elected can pardon him without raising the same constitutional crisis. He could also be elected, resign and be pardoned by his former VP (I find it doubtful he would go this route). None of these will affect charges on the state level, however.
The Georgia “find me the votes” case is coming up and it’s been highly speculated that Smith has a N.Y. case for the files kept at his club in Bedminster.
You are not logged in. However you can subscribe from another Fediverse account, for example Lemmy or Mastodon. To do this, paste the following into the search field of your instance: [email protected]
No such thing. Ask away!
!nostupidquestions is a community space dedicated to being helpful and answering each others’ questions on various topics.
Rule 1- All posts must be legitimate questions. All posts titles must include a question.
All posts must be legitimate questions, and all post titles must include a question. Questions that are joke or trolling questions, memes, song lyrics as title, etc. are not allowed here. See Rule 6 for all exceptions.
Rule 2- Your question subject cannot be illegal or NSFW material.
Your question subject cannot be illegal or NSFW material. You will be warned first, banned second.
Rule 3- Do not seek mental, medical and professional help here.
Do not seek mental, medical and professional help here. Breaking this rule will not get you or your post removed, but it will put you at risk, and possibly in danger.
Rule 4- No self promotion or upvote-farming of any kind.
That’s it.
Rule 5- No baiting or sealioning or promoting an agenda.
Questions which, instead of being of an innocuous nature, are specifically intended (based on reports and in the opinion of our crack moderation team) to bait users into ideological wars on charged political topics will be removed and the authors warned - or banned - depending on severity.
Rule 6- Regarding META posts and joke questions.
Provided it is about the community itself, you may post non-question posts using the [META] tag on your post title.
On fridays, you are allowed to post meme and troll questions, on the condition that it’s in text format only, and conforms with our other rules. These posts MUST include the [NSQ Friday] tag in their title.
If you post a serious question on friday and are looking only for legitimate answers, then please include the [Serious] tag on your post. Irrelevant replies will then be removed by moderators.
Rule 7- You can't harass or disturb other members.
If you vocally harass or discriminate against any individual member, you will be removed.
Likewise, if you are a member, sympathiser or a resemblant of a movement that is known to largely hate, mock, discriminate against, and/or want to take lives of a group of people, and you were provably vocal about your hate, then you will be banned on sight.
Rule 8- All comments should try to stay relevant to their parent content. Rule 9- Reposts from other platforms are not allowed.
Let everyone have their own content.
Rule 10- Majority of bots aren't allowed to participate here.
Unless included in our Whitelist for Bots, your bot will not be allowed to participate in this community. To have your bot whitelisted, please contact the moderators for a short review.
Partnered Communities
You can view our partnered communities list by following this link. To partner with our community and be included, you are free to message the moderators or comment on a pinned post.
Community Moderation
For inquiry on becoming a moderator of this community, you may comment on the pinned post of the time, or simply shoot a message to the current moderators.
Matrix Chat Room
To find & join our chat room, log into fluffychat.im(or any other matrix client) and put #nostupidquestions:matrix.org on the search bar.
Credits
Our breathtaking icon was bestowed upon us by @Cevilia!
Don’t get your hopes up, the chances of him going to prison, or bring punished in any way, are basically zero.
especially considering he’s not been proven guilty of anything that would prevent him from seeking nomination
As much as I’d like to say, “Oh, there’s no way in hell he’d win,” I remember saying the same thing in 2016, and here we are. Definitely a Constitutional crisis that would make it up to the Supreme Court, but yeah, we already know how the Conservative majority would decide on it.
Biden has had a couple victories, but they’re difficult to conceptualize into headlines. Things like confirming federal judges and jobless rate reductions. Many people, left and right, see his presidential accomplishments as lukewarm at best. Compare that with the current R headlines, striking down affirmative action, student loan forgiveness, and abortion, expanding the “right to refuse service” based on orientation, and future hearings which will likely further strip protections for LGBT people. These are MASSIVE conservative platform victories that have been campaigned on for decades, literally since the civil rights bill. I don’t think it can be stressed enough just how much red meat is in these few rulings for the conservative base. Couple that with stubborn inflation and negative real wage growth, Dems are looking at a very steep hill next year. Counterpoint, Dems have managed to embolden their younger base to mitigate midterm damage. But morale for this base is likely low given the student loan fiasco, LGBT rights, and a difficult economy.
Trump specifically is looking at two major challenges: legally, he has to avoid sentencing before the election. This will likely be something of a cakewalk for the guy. His federal case is currently being overseen by an openly biased judge who previously ruled in his favor on no basis other than “he’s a former president and should get special treatment”. Even with higher courts excoriating this particular justice, they are not likely to change their rulings this time. State charges are more difficult to dodge, but ultimately he will have fall guys and plea deals to fall back on in most if not all of these cases. A majority of Americans see these cases as political attacks anyway, not unbiased justice, so it’s unlikely these even hurt him in the polls.
The more poignant challenge in my opinion is in winning back independents and moderate Rs. He’s the front runner currently for the nomination, but it’s undeniable his antics wore thin on independents. He ran a divisive campaign and a divisive presidency and, well, it divided people. There’s no walking back some of the horrid opinions or outright lies he espoused. And there’s no hiding how ravenous hard conservatives have become in general for extremism and he and DeSantis are in a race to the bottom on appealing to this base. Time will tell whether independents hold their noses again and vote for him over Biden or another conservative in the primary.
Personally, I don’t see a world where he doesn’t win the primary and face off against Biden in the general. No world where the courts actually pin something to him either. If you don’t want to see another Trump presidency, swing state independents are gonna be your best shot.
Trump cannot possibly be sentenced to prison. He can and does deserve it, but it’s utterly impossible. Might as well wonder how high could pigs fly if pigs could fly.
He’ll be dead long before he’s sentenced to prison. If he doesn’t win, his usefulness is over with and he knows too much for the people that run the show to let him keep breathing.
Could you share some citations for that lol.
I thought that first time around, but here we are.
I think if he runs then he will lose because he has burned bridges with a lot of Republicans and swing voters. Biden is doing a pretty good job and with Desantis he is pissing off a lot of Republicans also.
Damn, I really hope you are right
I hope I am right also.
Will he win again? Time will tell - he still needs to make it through the primaries, and I think Ron DeSantis is playing better with old school republicans than Trump ever did, but last time Trump did beat Mitt Romney who was pretty widely respected, so its certainly possible. If that happens, I think he is likely to beat Biden. A lot of people voted Biden because he was distinctly “Not Trump”, but his victory’s have been poorly televised, and his defeats make him look ineffectual and near senile (thanks Murdoch media).
He has already said that if he is elected he will pardon himself. That’s never been done before, so would almost certainly go to the supreme court, but since thats Republican controlled I would expect that to get rubber stamped. He’s not going to prison if he wins.
Except that he could be convicted before the election in New York and Georgia.
POTUS has no pardon power over state crimes.
Nothing in the Constitution that says if he is convicted he can’t run.
Right, that wasn’t in question. I was responding to this poster saying that if he won the election, he’d pardon himself and not go to prison. I was just reminding him that Trump would not have that option for state crimes. So he’d be using an 8x6 cell instead of the Oval Office.
Yes - obviously if he does get sent to prison he cannot be elected president. I don’t think there’s precedent for this, so it’d probably go to the supreme court too, but since convicts can’t vote I ASSUME they can’t run.
Bad assumption. No law prevents running while in prison. Eugene Debs ran for president while in prison, for example.
When did Trump beat Mittens Romney?
Oops, good catch, I was misremembering.
Mitt was the 2012 republican Nominee against Obama, but he didn’t run for the 2016 primary. Ted Cruz was the second frontrunner that Trump beat. Now I wonder if Mitt would have beaten Trump in 2016, because I stand by that he was pretty well respected, but I guess we’ll never know.
I mean you’re right but…
Biden is still “not trump”, and most people likely to be influenced by Murdoch media are probably already trump voters. Also Trump’s position has deteriorated a lot since the last election - the legal problems must have cost him some supporters at least. Surely there’s a not-insignificant number of people that are starting to realise that his populist rhetoric is just that - he hates his base.
Even if elected, the Fourteenth Amendment bans Mr. Trump from legally serving without the approval of 2/3 of Congress, due to his participation in insurrection against the United States. Section 3 says:
You’re probably right, but has he been convicted of such? If he gets convicted of sharing secret documents is that equivalent? And if he gets convicted, what does the current no prison plea ultimately settle at regarding conviction of charges?
The Constitutional provision doesn’t require a criminal conviction; most Civil War rebels were not criminally charged.
I think he would have had to be convicted of that. Even though it’s exactly what he did, he hasn’t been convicted of anything really. The only shit that ever sticks with him are low stakes civil cases he can just throw money at…
He’s so fucking greasy that even shit won’t stick.
We’ll see, I think he might end up just covered in greasy shit.
There’s nothing in the American constitution preventing a convicted felon, or even a prisoner, from being elected president. So it’s mostly just up to if he can get the support of Republicans.
Getting elected president seems to be his legal defense strategy.
It is still an open question on if a president can pardon himself. Would probably depend on what the AG at the time would think as far as letting him out of prison if he pardons himself. Good thing is Trump appoints the AG so if Trump wins and is convicted he is getting out.
And we’ve learned that the rest of their country will then talk about how bad it is that rule of law has totally collapsed, and just sit around and shrug because there’s no possible way to show disapproval of a despotic regime besides grumbling online.
With any luck we have ten or so years before we wind up back into that timeline though.
Just like every other election, it just depends how many corporations put money behind him.
Everyone keeps talking about the fact that he may pardon himself. That is very likely true but let’s not forget the fact that anyone else who is elected can pardon him without raising the same constitutional crisis. He could also be elected, resign and be pardoned by his former VP (I find it doubtful he would go this route). None of these will affect charges on the state level, however.
What’re the charges on the state level?
The Georgia “find me the votes” case is coming up and it’s been highly speculated that Smith has a N.Y. case for the files kept at his club in Bedminster.